NATNature for Nature
(Focus on Intrinsic Value)
CULNature as Culture
(Focus on Relational Value)
SOCNature for Society
(Focus on Utilitarian Value)
BAUBusiness as Usual
UGUncontrolled Growth
Nature for Nature emphasizes the protection and promotion of biodiversity. This scenario characterizes that in certain areas for biodiversity promotion, humans are denied access. There is a societal consensus that biodiversity needs its space to thrive, as people value nature for its intrinsic values.
This scenario assumes that human society globally follows sustainable pathways (SSP1) and climate action is effective (RCP 2.6). The Swiss population grows slightly to reach 9.5 million in 2060 and the economy strives for a system beyond growth. The principle of sufficiency applies to both generation and consumption, resulting in a sharp drop in energy demand compared to 2020. Energy supply is relying on highly efficient renewable energy plants in a few locations. Recreational areas near urban and peri-urban areas are managed to avoid disturbing biodiversity hotspots (e.g., by closing river or forest areas), while existing tourism areas (e.g., ski resorts) are transformed into sustainably managed ecotourism areas (e.g., opportunities for guided wildlife viewing). While settlements in remote rural areas are abandoned, small towns in mountain areas are preserved with spatial constraints on urban development. Nationwide, there is no further urban sprawl compared to today. Both agricultural and forestry policies focus on promoting biodiversity. Soil-independent production using hydroponic farming methods takes place in industrial areas, while soil-dependent agriculture in rural areas is strongly connected to biodiversity measures: direct agricultural payments are linked to landscape quality and ecological connectivity, as are subsidies for land set aside for the development of habitats for sensitive species. EI has high priority on the political agenda and is coordinated among sectors with a strong focus on promoting biodiversity. An EI sectoral plan defines the EI through spatial planning and cantons are actively promoting EI planning and implementation while coordinating with the federal level. Protected areas will be expanded to cover 30% of Switzerland's land area by 2060, and their management will be site-specific according to IUCN categories Ia or IV. Species and habitats important for biodiversity, ecosystem processes and functions will be prioritized in the selection of new protected area sites.
Nature as Culture sets the priority on integrating communities into land management. It assumes a multifunctional land management with strong focus on community engagement and regional development. Biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people are highly respected, and the development of a regional EI is ingrained in human culture.
This scenario assumes that humanity follows sustainable pathways (SSP1) and climate forcing is very limited (RCP2.6). In 2060, the Swiss population will have grown slightly to 9.5 million, and the Swiss economy will have shifted towards a regionalized model beyond growth with short market chains. Compared to 2020, there is a slight decrease in energy demand. Energy supply is decentralized, with greater efficiency and savings sought at local and regional levels. Recreational areas near urban and peri-urban areas are managed to avoid disturbing biodiversity hotspots (e.g., by closing river or forest areas), while existing tourism areas (e.g., ski resorts) are transformed into sustainably managed ecotourism areas that convey regional values (e.g., opportunities to participate in agricultural projects). In mountain areas, villages continue to exist, and in general more people will move to rural settlements surrounded by extensively managed agricultural areas. However, nationwide urban sprawl is limited to current levels. Agricultural policy focuses on promoting both biodiversity and community engagement: direct payments are linked to landscape quality and ecological connectivity, as are subsidies for further subsidies for involving local communities in the land management. EI has high priority on the political agenda and is coordinated among sectors to promote biodiversity and immaterial NCPs. An EI sectoral plan defines the EI through spatial planning and cantons are actively promoting EI planning and implementation while coordinating with the federal level. By 2060, protected areas will be expanded to cover 25% of Switzerland's land area, and their management will be site-specific according to IUCN categories V or VI. Species and landscape elements that are important for local communities and cultural heritage are given priority when selecting sites for new protected areas.
Nature for Society focuses on the sustainable supply of NCPs to the Swiss population. It assumes a strong division of the landscape: Housing, agricultural production, biodiversity protection, recreation, energy production are spatially separated. This has implications for the planning of rural and urban areas, with most people living in large, green cities. Society highly values NCPs for their instrumental values, i.e. the provision of material (e.g., timber, crops), regulatory (e.g., flood control), and immaterial (e.g., recreation) assets.
Global development on a mid-range climate warming path (RCP4.5) and socio-economic development at business-as-usual (SSP2) form the basic assumptions of this scenario. In Switzerland, the population grows to 10.5 million people and the economy is characterized by green growth and efficient technological innovations. Urban and peri-urban areas are growing rapidly. Small towns with spatial restrictions on settlement development are emerging in mountainous areas, while settlements in remote rural areas are increasingly being abandoned. Overall, the extent of urban sprawl remains at current levels. Energy demand increases slightly compared to 2020 and is met by high-efficiency renewable energy facilities in designated areas. Recreational areas near urban and peri-urban areas are selected to be highly attractive (e.g., forests for mountain biking, lakes for water sports), while existing tourism areas (e.g., high-altitude ski resorts) are sustainably strengthened and new ecotourism areas are established. Agricultural policy focuses on promoting production on the most suitable soils through yield-based direct payments and further subsidies for the acquisition of new technologies. Forestry policy increasingly focuses on the recreational function of forests, while maintaining their other functions. EI has high priority on the political agenda and is coordinated among sectors to provide a diversity of NCPs. An EI sectoral plan defines the EI through spatial planning and cantons are actively promoting EI planning and implementation while coordinating with the federal level. By 2060, protected areas will be expanded to cover 17% of Switzerland's land area, with site selection focused on ecosystems important to biodiversity and Switzerland's NCP needs, and site-specific management according to IUCN categories II or IV.
Business as usual assumes the continuing trends of the last decades: The broader society continues to have a distorted view of the biodiversity crisis lacking comprehension of its reality in Switzerland. Since EI is not an issue in Swiss society, people follow their current value patterns by valuing nature for providing NCPs but without understanding the underlying social-ecological feedbacks.
The scenario assumes a mid-range climate warming path (RCP4.5) and socio-economic development at business-as-usual (SSP2). In Switzerland, the population grows to 10.5 million people and the economy is characterized by green growth. Agricultural policy focuses on promoting production with integrated biodiversity measures through direct payments linked to landscape quality and ecological connectivity. Recreational areas near urban and peri-urban areas are selected to ensure high attractiveness (e.g., forests for mountain biking, lakes for water sports activities), while existing tourism areas (e.g., high-altitude ski resorts) continue to be supported to maximize their use. Urban and peri-urban areas are growing moderately, while more and more remote rural settlements are being abandoned. Overall, the extent of urban sprawl remains at current levels. Some cantons actively promote EI planning and implementation, but coordination with the federal level is poor. Until 2060, coverage of protected areas will remain the same as the present day. Protected area management will proceed under current strategies, i.e. mostly under IUCN categories II or IV.
Uncontrolled Growth follows trends of drivers identified as hindering for EI development: There is a general mentality of disinterest in the biodiversity crisis and a lack of cross-sectoral and cross-cantonal cooperation, while at the same time agricultural practices that are detrimental to biodiversity are increasing and urban sprawl is growing.
In the face of global crises, Switzerland is striving for domestic agricultural production to ensure food security for the population. Globally, SSP3 and RCP8.5 are assumed, leading to significantly warmer conditions and more frequent extreme events in Switzerland than in any of the other four scenarios. Urban and peri-urban areas are growing moderately, with industrial areas developing in an uncoordinated manner. In rural areas, building is increasingly taking place outside the construction zone. Energy demand has increased sharply compared to 2020 in the absence of an overarching spatial strategy for energy supply. Recreation areas near urban and peri-urban areas are selected in a way that ensure close attractivities (e.g., forests for mountain biking, lakes for water sport activities) while existing tourism areas (e.g., high-altitude ski resorts) are continued to be supported to maximize their use. Agricultural policy strongly promotes production, with direct payments linked to yield numbers, while forestry policy focuses on timber production and hazard protection. EI is not on the political agenda of the federal government, which means that EI is not planned at all nationwide, let alone implemented. In 2060, some of the protected areas that exist today will continue to be managed under IUCN Category II, while others will exist only on maps.
Characteristics
Climate scenario:RCP 2.6
Population scenario:Low
Economic scenario:Ecological awareness – Urban densification
Value perspective on nature:mainly intrinsic
Protected areas (proportion of Swiss land area and management):30% under IUCN Ia or IV
Characteristics
- Climate scenario:RCP 2.6
- Population scenario:Reference
- Economic scenario:Ecological awareness – Central
- Value perspective on nature:mainly relational
- Protected areas (proportion of Swiss land area and management):25% under IUCN categories V or VI
Characteristics
- Climate scenario:RCP 4.5
- Population scenario:Reference
- Economic scenario:Combined technological acceleration and Ecological awareness – Urban densification
- Value perspective on nature:mainly instrumental
- Protected areas (proportion of Swiss land area and management):25% under IUCN categories II or IV
Characteristics
- Climate scenario:RCP 4.5
- Population scenario:Reference
- Economic scenario:Reference - Central
- Value perspective on nature:mainly instrumental
- Protected areas (proportion of Swiss land area and management):At current level, under II and IV
Characteristics
- Climate scenario:RCP 8.5
- Population scenario:High
- Economic scenario:Reference - Peri-Urbanisation
- Value perspective on nature:mainly instrumental
- Protected areas (proportion of Swiss land area and management):At current level, without strict management
